CMA Capitol Insight: June 7, 2016 CMA Capitol Insight is a biweekly column by veteran journalist Anthony York, reporting on the inner workings of the state Legislature. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ All Eyes on California The nation’s eyes will be on California this week, as voters here go to the polls in the final major presidential contest of the long primary season. We’ve seen a massive swell in new voter registration this year. State voter rolls grew by more than 646,000 voters in April and May alone, with more than three-fourths of those voters signing up as Democrats. It will be important to see whether these new voters are primarily motivated by a desire to vote for Bernie Sanders or against Donald Trump. The two are not mutually exclusive, of course, but the answer could have broad implications for this election year – and the future of California politics. A galvanized anti-Trump vote, which presumably would be largely Latino, could not only boost candidates like Loretta Sanchez this year, but also could potentially create a stronger foundation for candidates like Antonio Villaraigosa, who is contemplating a run for governor in 2018. The voting surge could also play a role in the outcome of a number of legislative primary races that could set the tone for the future of the Democratic Party in Sacramento. This week, we’ll look at some of the most contested primary races and provide a bit of a guide for what to look for tonight. In the East Bay, Mae Torlakson, the wife of state Superintendent Tom Torlakson, is running for her husband’s old Assembly seat, having racked up many of the establishment endorsements in the process. But Concord Councilman Tim Grayson has received significant financial backing from education reform group EdVoice. The teachers’ union is backing Torlakson, making this race a rematch of sorts for the special interest battle in Tom Torlakson’s reelection bid in 2014. This is a key race to watch in the ongoing political battle between charter school and reform advocates on the one hand, and teachers’ unions on the other. The other big story this election cycle is the battle of business groups led by the oil industry versus candidates with strong environmental backing. In many cases, there has been an ethnic component to these races, with white candidates receiving environmental backing and black or Latino candidates receiving the backing of business groups. That is the dynamic in a Bay Area state Senate race, where San Jose Sen. Jim Beall is facing a challenge from fellow Democrat Assemblywoman Nora Campos. Beall is backed by environmentalists, including billionaire Tom Steyer, who has donated more than $400,000 to a pro-Beall effort. Campos has received backing from Chevron and other business groups. But the ethnic lines are not always so distinct. In San Bernardino, Assemblywoman Cheryl Brown is locked in a battle for reelection with attorney Eloise Reyes. In this safe Democratic district, both candidates are Democrats. But Brown was one of the leading voices against a provision to cut oil consumption in the state, handing Gov. Jerry Brown a rare legislative defeat last year. Some of the unions that were backing Brown are now standing with Reyes, while oil and other interests are with Brown. Spending in this race has already passed the $2 million mark, underscoring the stakes in many of these Democratic primaries. In the San Fernando Valley and Westside of Los Angeles County, businesses that often align with Republicans are supporting attorney Janice Kamenir Reznik against Henry Stern in the fight to replace Fran Pavley, one of the leading environmental voices in Sacramento over the last two decades. Reznick is a partner in a well-connected Los Angeles law firm that has raised millions for Democrats over the years, while Stern, an environmental attorney and the son of actor Daniel Stern, has been a Capitol staffer for Pavley. These three races are all at the top of the ongoing environmental vs. business battles in the Capitol, which have become more pronounced in recent years. And with California now a solidly Blue state politically, more and more of these fights are happening within the confines of the Democratic Party. Of course, with the state’s relatively new top-two primary system, many of these battles will be waged again in the fall. Next time, we’ll have a full rundown of the primary election results, a discussion of the implications for the fall, and a scorecard of winners and losers. Until then, don’t forget to vote. June 8, 2016 CMA CMA Capitol Insight, Anthony York 0 0 Comment Read More »
CMA Capitol Insight: April 26, 2016 CMA Capitol Insight is a biweekly column by veteran journalist Anthony York, reporting on the inner workings of the state Legislature. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Legislative Scramble Last week was a frantic one inside the Capitol as lawmakers faced a key deadline to pass bills out of policy committee. Measures that did not receive committee approval last week were shelved for the year. A number of major proposals lived to fight another day, but many efforts were left on the prominent pile of abandoned bill ideas that accumulates each and every year. Among those bills that were put on hold for the year was a measure by Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez to find new ways to help gig workers strengthen their collective voice in dealing with management. As income inequality has increased across the nation, there has been a simultaneous reduction in union representation – a fact that many union proponents say has been a contributing factor to the gap between the haves and have-nots. Gonzalez is one of a growing group of Democrats looking for new ways to give workers a voice in our changing economy. Unions have had their own problems over the last several decades, and Gonzalez’s bill was an effort to allow contract workers to bargain collectively, if not necessarily through a formal union. The measure had opponents on the right and the left, with many in organized labor raising concerns about the limits and structures of this new gig-worker representation. While the bill has failed for the year, the concept is sure to be one that lawmakers will be forced to wrestle with as they continue to try to find ways to tweak public policy to stem some of the troubling workplace trends of the last four decades. The winnowing of the legislative agenda also included the end of efforts to impose new taxes on soda and other sweetened beverages. The effort by Santa Monica Assemblyman Richard Bloom was shelved after failing to generate support in the lower house. The end of the soda-tax campaign marks the latest setback for the statewide and national efforts to impose soda taxes. While some localities in California (most notably Berkeley) have passed local levies on sugary drinks, the effort has yet to gain traction statewide. This year’s defeat begs the question of when, if ever, the legislative effort to tax soda may gain critical mass. Perhaps a budget slowdown will give the soda tax – and other taxes – the momentum they need. The tax haul from April is typically crucial in the state budgeting process, and data from the state controller’s office shows that income tax revenues – which account for two-thirds of all general fund revenues – are about $3 billion lower than the forecast in Gov. Jerry Brown’s January budget. If those numbers don’t improve, it could have dire consequences for everything from Medi-Cal spending to other state services. We’ll be watching as the governor’s May Revision approaches… But supporters of additional revenues did get some good news last week. A survey from the Public Policy Institute of California shows 62 percent of likely voters say they are in favor of extending the higher income taxes for upper earners. In 2012, when Prop. 30 was on the ballot, there was no real concerted effort to combat the income tax hike. With these strong poll numbers, and the higher tax rates already in place, it seems increasingly less likely that there will be well-funded opposition against the measure. What remains unclear is the role of the governor in this campaign. When Brown pushed for higher taxes in 2012, he was the spokesman and champion of the effort to get it passed. But he also promised voters the tax was temporary, and he has been lukewarm, at best, about the prospects of an extension. We’ll see if the slow income tax numbers change his tune. Over the next couple of weeks, we expect ballot-measure proponents to begin submitting signatures to county elections offices as the race for the November ballot enters its final phase. Next time, we’ll have a more in-depth budget preview and a look ahead at how the November ballot is taking shape. April 28, 2016 CMA, General CMA Capitol Insight, Anthony York, State Legislation 0 0 Comment Read More »
CMA Capitol Insight: April 11, 2016 CMA Capitol Insight is a biweekly column by veteran journalist Anthony York, reporting on the inner workings of the state Legislature. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________ A Higher Wage (and Higher Tobacco Tax?) Gov. Jerry Brown continued to make history when he signed a $15/hour minimum wage into law. The governor, whose administration had publicly opposed calls for a higher wage, couched the increase in moral terms at a Los Angeles signing ceremony. What’s notable is that the higher wage will take effect statewide. Others had thought that more economically depressed areas of the state might only have to absorb a $13 wage. But by 2023, the entire state will be under the $15 rule, and future increases will automatically be pegged to the rate of inflation. While the move could send ripples through national politics, with wages emerging as a big issue on the presidential campaign trail, it’s also notable for the impact it will have in California. The passage of the minimum wage bill means that labor groups will withdraw their ballot measure proposals seeking wage hikes. One of the minimum wage initiative’s main backers, SEIU, is also a major backer of the tobacco tax measure, which is heading toward the fall ballot in partnership with the California Medical Association. Without a wage initiative on the ballot, more labor resources are available for the tobacco tax proposal, which is certain to face a multi-million dollar opposition campaign from tobacco companies. A Major Victory The California Medical Association won a major victory in Fresno last week when Dr. Joaquin Arambula received more than 50 percent of the vote in a special election to fill the seat vacated by Henry Perea, who resigned his seat in December to take a job with the pharmaceutical industry. Arambula’s victory allows him to avoid a run-off and immediately begin serving out the rest of Perea’s term. But Arambula will be on the ballot again in June, and in November, as he asks voters to send him to Sacramento for a full two-year term. Given the fact that 2016 is a presidential election year, and Democratic turnout is expected to be high, Arambula’s chances of reelection this fall are strong. For Republicans, who were hoping to possibly pick up a Central Valley seat in an off-year election, the way they did with Andy Vidak in the southern part of the Valley in 2013, the election means the likely end of their election hopes for that seat. Intra-Party Tensions Rising Arambula was elected with the strong backing of CMA. And while his victory was important for Democrats, expect there to be some tension over future votes, as the rift between the liberal and more moderate wings of the party continues to evolve and intensify. Arambula will likely be a more moderate voice within the Assembly Democratic Caucus (like many of his Central Valley colleagues), and we’ve seen tensions between moderates and other wings of the party rise. First, it was environmental groups who targeted Democrats who refused to vote for restrictions on state oil use in last year’s SB 350. Now, we see organized labor flexing its muscle against Democrats who did not support a higher minimum wage. Earlier this month, the California Labor Federation announced its 2016 candidate endorsements. What was notable was who was not on the list: a handful of incumbent Democratic legislators, all seen as business friendly (Adam Gray, Rudy Salas, Cheryl Brown, and Tom Daly). This is the latest chapter in the growing public rift between the business and labor wings of the Democratic Party. It makes sense that in a state that is increasingly run by one party, the Democrats, those intra-Democratic fights would become more profound and more severe. Part of the tension may also be connected to the new term limits laws, which will allow members to stay in office longer. With incumbents more entrenched, interest groups may go back to their old, pre-term limit ways, where individual races became proxy fights for control of the caucus. Throughout the late 1970s, speakership battles between Democrats Leo McCarthy, Howard Berman and Willie Brown were fought at the ballot box, with rival Democratic factions supporting different Democratic candidates. Victory meant locking up a speakership vote for one candidate or another, and these expensive ballot-box fights played out over multiple election cycles. That subsided with the passage of term limits in 1990. The constant churn essentially eliminated those proxy wars, and left incumbents with a mostly free path in primary fights. Now that members can serve for 12 years in one house, we’ll have to wait and see whether the fights between factions comes back to the ballot box, as interest groups turn their political focus inward. April 12, 2016 General CMA Capitol Insight, State Legislative Advocacy, Anthony York 0 0 Comment Read More »
CMA Capitol Insight: March 28, 2016 CMA Capitol Insight is a biweekly column by veteran journalist Anthony York, reporting on the inner workings of the state Legislature. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Making the ballot A deal was reached among Democratic leaders in Sacramento late last week on a plan to bring California’s minimum wage to $15 per hour – the highest in the nation and double the national minimum. The deal comes after years of wrestling in the legislature, and a statewide push that began years ago with a handful of public sector unions in Los Angeles. The accord avoids a fight at the ballot box, where labor groups were preparing a measure to ask voters to raise the wage statewide. Under the terms of the deal, California’s minimum wage would go from $10 an hour to $10.50 on Jan. 1, 2017, with a 50-cent increase in 2018 and then $1-per-year increases in each of the following four years. Businesses with fewer than 25 employees would have an extra year to comply, delaying their workers receiving a $15 hourly wage until 2023. The plan also allows for future increases pegged to the rate of inflation. Locals have led the way in passing the higher wage. San Francisco, Los Angeles and a handful of other cities already have wages at higher than the current statewide minimum of $10 per hour – and are phasing in future increases that would increase the wage to $15. Of course, the measure could still head to the ballot if it is passed quickly by lawmakers in Sacramento. If business groups wanted to hold a referendum on the wage hike, they would have 90 days from the time the bill is signed to gather signatures that could yet put the measure before California voters this fall. But for now, the deal means that the monster ballot that was facing voters this fall will be pared back a bit. A pair of proposed tax-hike measures have already fallen by the wayside. Meanwhile, drama remains. Gov. Jerry Brown’s plan to reform juvenile justice and adult parole is still caught in a legal tangle, with the state Supreme Court expected to rule early next month on whether the measure is eligible to go forward. Californians will have plenty to vote on this fall, however. Everything from tobacco taxes to extending the state’s upper-income tax brackets will be on the ballot, as will the first open U.S. Senate seat in 24 years, and, of course, the presidential race. A new PPIC poll shows Donald Trump ahead of Ted Cruz in the state’s GOP primary. But it’s really not one primary at all. The winner of the statewide vote gets only 10 of the state’s 172 delegates. The rest are awarded by Congressional district. So, the candidate who gets the most Republican votes in Nancy Pelosi’s Congressional district gets three delegates, as does the winner of Tom McClintock’s conservative Northern California district. And so on. The polls shows Trump and Cruz running about even among Republican men. Trump’s lead is due to his stronger showing among the state’s Republican women. And there could be echoes in the U.S. Senate race. Loretta Sanchez currently trails Kamala Harris in the race for Senate, but is currently running second overall. While there is still a large number of undecided voters, the top two finishers (regardless of party) advance to the fall runoff. Sanchez leads Harris 36-22 among California Latinos. If Latinos turn out in numbers to vote against Trump, Sanchez could get a boost. The poll also showed strong support for the Prop. 30 extension, with 58 percent of voters poised to maintain high tax rates for individuals making $250,000 or more. Just 38 percent of those polled said they’re opposed to the measure. March 31, 2016 General Anthony York, CMA Capitol Insight 0 0 Comment Read More »
CMA Capitol Insight: Feb. 1, 2016 CMA Capitol Insight is a biweekly column by veteran journalist Anthony York, reporting on the inner workings of the state Legislature. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Crime and the Coast Gov. Jerry Brown announced plans for a major new ballot initiative this fall – but it wasn’t climate change or tax reform in the governor’s crosshairs. Instead, Brown will focus on criminal justice, seeking changes in the parole system to allow more flexibility to locals and to help alleviate the pressures of the jail and prison system caused by years of lock-em-up policies. Those policies, ironically enough, started with some of the mandatory sentencing laws signed by Brown during his first stint as governor and marked our state’s criminal justice policy throughout the 1980s and ‘90s. But in California, the tide has turned in recent years, as voters have passed initiatives that favored more rehabilitation for non-violent drug offenders, as well as measures like Proposition 47, which reclassified many nonviolent offenses as misdemeanors. Brown himself has been steeped in criminal justice reform since retaking the governor’s office in 2011, with the federal government in charge of the state prison system, and federal judges ordering the state to alleviate its prison crowding problem. Without the resources or political will to build more prisons, Brown instead has adopted a policy of realignment, moving thousands of offenders to local jails instead of state prisons, in the process creating new budget pressures and public safety issues for counties. The appetite for reform has grown nationally. President Obama mentioned criminal justice changes as one of the few areas where Democrats and Republicans may be able to work together this year. Groups as diverse as the Koch brothers and Black Lives Matter have talked about the need to change the nation’s policies about incarceration. Brown’s new plan would have to be approved by voters, and the governor said he is willing to spend some of his political war chest – currently at about $25 million – on a November ballot measure. Brown’s measure authorizes parole consideration for nonviolent inmates who complete the full sentence for their primary offense. It also allows inmates to earn credits for good behavior, education and rehabilitative achievement, and requires judges, rather than prosecutors, to decide whether juveniles as young as 14 years old should be tried as adults. Meanwhile, the governor is coming under fire from environmental groups who accuse Brown of leading a secret coup at the California Coastal Commission. After years of poor performance reviews and ignored calls for more diversity on the commission staff, a majority of commissioners say they support replacing the current executive director, Charles Lester. Lester, who is cozy with environmental activists, has painted his attempted ouster as an effort to bring a more pro-development tenor to the staff. The commissioners who support replacing Lester call this a red herring, and say the real need for a change comes from Lester’s poor management style and willful refusal to extend even simple courtesies to homeowners or local governments on coastal questions. In any event, the mess has spilled over into the public sphere and landed on the governor’s desk. Four of the commission’s 12 members serve at the pleasure of the governor, while the other eight serve fixed terms appointed by the Assembly Speaker and Senate Rules Committee. It would take at least six votes to replace Lester, which means it would take more than just Brown appointees to oust him. The entire sordid affair will come to a head on February 10, when the commission next meets in Morro Bay. Bring your popcorn… February 3, 2016 General CMA Capitol Insight, Anthony York 0 0 Comment Read More »
CMA Capitol Insight: Jan. 4, 2016 CMA Capitol Insight is a biweekly column by veteran journalist Anthony York, reporting on the inner workings of the state Legislature. _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Back to work The legislature and Gov. Jerry Brown are back in Sacramento, taking up much of the unfinished business of the 2015 legislative year, and with a few new initiatives in store. The action begins in earnest later this week, when Brown releases his state budget plan. With state revenues still strong, the dynamics of the state budget fight are familiar: Democrats will be pushing for expanded spending on social programs, while Brown will seek targeted investments while espousing ideals of fiscal conservatism. If past is indeed prologue, Brown will work to tamp down Democratic expectations. We’re guessing a nod to this week’s shaky start on Wall Street may be invoked by the governor as a reminder of the precarious nature of our state’s fiscal health. But Brown is expected to launch at least one new major proposal. The governor has hinted at pushing for sweeping changes in the state’s sentencing laws, and there are indications that Brown may use his political capital, and some of the millions of dollars he has in his political accounts, to push for state voters to revamp the state’s sentencing rules. It would be the latest in a string of criminal justice reforms that we have seen since Brown retook office. Brown himself led the push for the policy known as realignment, sending thousands of criminals arrested for lower-level crimes to local jails instead of state prisons. In 2014, voters approved Proposition 47, which reclassified several felonies as misdemeanors, further alleviating some of the crowding pressures that have placed the state prisons in federal receivership, while adding new stress to local jails and new riddles for local law enforcement and community leaders. Already, there are some signs of agreement among the parties. Both Democrats and Republicans have said they want to increase funding for services for the developmentally disabled, something that was overlooked in last year’s budget despite the state’s robust economic health. There are other major, and more contentious, issues on the table. Among them is a $1 billion hole in the health care budget, due to the legislature’s failure to agree on a new managed care tax plan. Republicans in the legislature have said the state’s strong revenues show there is no need to renew the tax, which would have to apply to public and private hospitals, in the wake of a recent federal ruling. Transportation will be another major fight, as last year’s special session yielded no progress on the state’s massive infrastructure needs. And Brown being Brown, there are likely a couple of other wildcards that we’ll all be talking about after the budget release, as we set the table for another legislative year. Meanwhile, leadership changes abound in the Legislature. The Republicans have two new leaders, with Senator Jean Fuller and Assemblyman Chad Mayes. And Democrats are bracing for a new speaker as Anthony Rendon prepares to take the gavel from San Diego Democrat Toni Atkins. This is also an election year. Not only is there an open U.S. Senate seat on the line for the first time since 1992, but a host of ballot initiatives and legislative races are expected to bring hundreds of millions of dollars in spending. Given the intra-Democratic Party fights of the last session, and the new term limits dynamics, rumors abound about potential primary challenges for Democrats up and down the state from members of their own party. This Back to the Future dynamic is in part the byproduct of new term limits laws and demographic changes in the state that have raised the stakes for Democratic legislative contests. Also at stake is a special election for California’s 31st Assembly District seat, recently vacated by Henry Perea. The California Medical Association (CMA) is supporting a Fresno area emergency room physician (and CMA member), Joaquin Arambula, M.D., in this competitive race. Dr. Arambula is endorsed by Perea himself, as well as by a number of other prominent local leaders. Throughout the year, during all the twists and turns, we’ll be here to document the legislative and political fights, and keep you up-to-date on the latest Capitol intrigue. It’s shaping up to be quite a year. January 15, 2016 General Capitol Insight, Anthony York 0 0 Comment Read More »
CMA Capitol Insight: Dec. 7, 2015 CMA Capitol Insight is a biweekly column by veteran journalist Anthony York, reporting on the inner workings of the state Legislature ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Whirlwind of a week Jerry Brown set off for Paris, but redirected his travel through San Bernardino to meet with law enforcement officials and others on the scene of America’s latest mass shooting. The shooting seems to occupy some strange place between the Paris attacks, which were orchestrated by ISIS, and a very American-style, Fort Hood or office place violence incident. One of the shooters pledged her allegiance to ISIS on social media before the attacks, but the group did not claim any knowledge of or responsibility for the shootings that left 14 dead in a regional center in the heart of the Inland Empire. The shooting has prompted a global discussion about the changing face of terrorism, while reigniting the fight over gun control back home. Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom is pushing a measure for the November 2016 ballot that would outlaw possession of large ammunition magazines and require background checks for anyone trying to purchase ammunition. For his part, Brown said from Paris, home to the latest ISIS-planned attack, that California’s laws were among the toughest in the nation, but ripped weaker laws in neighboring states. Upon his arrival in Paris, Brown blasted what he called “wide open” gun laws in Nevada and Arizona, calling them a “gigantic back door through which any terrorist can walk.” Brown has been cautious about his approach to more gun control in California, but in the wake of the recent round of shootings, lawmakers are already lining up to take action. Assemblyman Mike Gatto, D-Los Angeles, said he plans to introduce legislation that would prohibit people on the government’s no-fly list from buying guns and certain chemicals that could be used in the manufacture of explosives. Incidentally, Gatto made news last week when he suddenly dropped his bid for state Senate against former Assemblyman Anthony Portantino, in an inland Los Angeles district that some Republicans say could be a potential pick-up in 2016. Portantino feuded with now-Senate leader Kevin de León when the two were in the Assembly, and both had their eye on the speaker’s gavel. The Capitol was shaken by a pair of resignations last week – Assemblyman Henry Perea, D-Fresno, the leader of the moderate Democrats, announced he would leave office at the end of the year. Perea was not eligible to seek reelection to his Assembly seat because of term limits. When the announcement came, rumors swirled about Perea’s future plans, in particular that he would land a government affairs job in time for the 2016 election. Perea insisted that he has no plans lined up, but that hasn’t stopped Capitol whispers from circulating. Something tells us we’ll have an update…soon. Perea’s announcement brought to mind the mid-term resignation of Democratic Sen. Michael Rubio to take a government affairs job at Chevron, raising questions about the revolving door between politics and special interests who work to influence the Capitol. With less fanfare, but arguably more impact on the Capitol community, Assembly staffer Greg Campbell, who has served as chief of staff to the last several speakers, announced he was leaving his post to start a new lobbying and consulting firm. Campbell’s transition marks the end of an era in the Capitol – namely the Proposition 140 era. With a revolving door in the speaker’s office (Willie Brown held the post for 15 years. There have been nine speakers in the last 20 years.), Campbell and other senior staff provided the continuity needed to deal with a turbulent political environment. But with Anthony Rendon prepared to take the gavel in early 2016, we are seeing a change in the dynamics between staff and lawmakers. Rendon will have more than eight years of eligibility to serve in the lower house’s highest office. But lawmakers are all preparing for Brown’s return from Paris, and the beginning of budget season. The Legislative Analyst’s Office says the state is once again flush with cash, which has inadvertently complicated the fight over the managed care tax. And the California Medical Association and other powerful interests are still refining a tax proposal for the 2016 ballot that would extend the top income tax brackets beyond 2018, and provide a new dedicated stream of health care funding. Next time, we’ll take a closer look at the state budget preview, and some of the issues that will dominate the discussion in 2016. December 7, 2015 General CMA Capitol Insight, Anthony York 0 0 Comment Read More »
CMA Capitol Insight: Nov. 24, 2015 CMA Capitol Insight is a biweekly column by veteran journalist Anthony York, reporting on the inner workings of the state Legislature. _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Ripples across the pond The terrorist attacks in Paris have reverberated through the political world, changing the tenor and tone of the American presidential contest and setting off a debate in statehouses around the country about housing Syrian refugees. Gov. Jerry Brown has said he would like to see California maintain its “traditional role as a place of asylum,” breaking with other governors who have warned that admitting Syrian refugees could potentially undermine American security. President Barack Obama said he would like to see the U.S. accept as many as 10,000 Syrian war refugees over the course of the next year. But in the wake of this month’s attacks, and revelations that at least one of the attackers crossed into Europe posing as a Syrian refugee, other governors have made clear their states would not welcome asylum seekers. “I intend to work closely with the President so that he can both uphold America’s traditional role as a place of asylum, but also ensure that anyone seeking refuge in America is fully vetted in a sophisticated and utterly reliable way,” Brown told the Sacramento Bee. “You can be sure that we will do everything in our power to protect the people of our state.” The political attacks also changed the optics around the upcoming global climate summit in Paris next month, which has been in many ways the magnetic pole of the Brown administration in 2015. Brown, of course, has adopted the climate cause as his own, and has spent much of his governorship positioning California as a global leader on climate policy. However, he did not achieve all of his legislative goals this year, suffering a stinging rebuke at the hands of the oil industry, which beat back a Brown-supported effort to pass new state limits on future petroleum use. Brown is taking a large entourage to Paris, and as he did at the Vatican earlier this year, taking his shot at grabbing the global microphone to advocate for new global environmental protections. But in the immediate wake of the Paris attack, there was some question as to whether the global summit would happen at all. The meeting is still on, and French President François Hollande has vowed to use the summit as an opportunity for the world to show global solidarity with Paris. Brown has also reaffirmed his intention to attend, saying as long as the meeting was on, he was going to be there. But in the wake of the shootings earlier this month, it now means something just a little different to have our governor in Paris. There is an added dimension of symbolism and import, and a new opportunity for Brown to bring his philosophical skills to the global stage. We’re counting on at least a little bit of news, or at least colorful reportage, from the Californians in the press corps who will be following the governor through France. When he returns, Brown and his team will be focused on the state budget, which is expected to be robust, with revenues more than $3.6 billion higher than the governor projected last summer. The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) came out with its 2016-17 budget-year estimate, with a projected surplus of as much as $11.5 billion in the upcoming fiscal year. But, this being California, after all, the LAO also offered several alternative economic scenarios in which the state hits a recession in FY 2017-2018, which would cause revenues to fall by more than $60 billion. So there’s that. The current state budget allocates roughly $31.6 billion to Health and Human Services spending, according to the LAO report. That number is expected to climb more than $2 billion in the net budget year. Of course, those predictions are based on current law, with no expansion of benefits, eligibility or Medi-Cal reimbursement rates. If the past is any indication, those things seem to be a fair assumption about Brown’s January budget, but he will undoubtedly face pressures from Democrats and others who want the state to do more. Already, Assembly Republican Leader Kristin Olsen has joined Speaker Toni Atkins in calling for more spending on services for the developmentally disabled. And health care, which takes up the largest sector of the state budget outside of education, will be a source of multiple contentious political fights in the months to come. December 7, 2015 General CMA Capitol Insight, Anthony York 0 0 Comment Read More »
CMA Capitol Insight: Nov. 9, 2015 CMA Capitol Insight is a biweekly column by veteran journalist Anthony York, reporting on the inner workings of the state Legislature. Capitol happenings The legislature may be out of session, but there is plenty of political intrigue swirling about Sacramento. With a new set of rules in place for ballot initiatives, thanks to changes passed by lawmakers last year, the calendar deadline to get final measures into the attorney general’s office for review is fast approaching. Over the last two weeks, we saw a broad coalition (with the backing of Napster founder and former Facebook exec, Sean Parker) move forward with a plan to legalize recreational use of marijuana. The proposal hews closely to the recommendations made in a report issued by Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom’s Blue Ribbon Commission on Marijuana Policy, and seems crafted in part to try to attract Newsom’s support. We also saw the latest chapter in a long internal battle between rival unions over who should author a statewide plan to increase California’s minimum wage to $15 per hour. A faction of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), United Healthcare Workers, had put forward a plan to raise the wage to $15 by 2021. But just last week, the union’s parent organization, SEIU State Council, announced its own proposal. The measure gets to the $15 threshold one year sooner, and also includes an expansion of the state’s paid sick leave requirements, from three days to six. Speaking of rival proposals, it appears peace talks are at hand between groups who are looking to extend the state’s income taxes for upper wage earners. Two different proposals had been introduced – one backed by the California Teachers Association and other labor groups, and another with the support of the California Hospital Association. But the two sides announced this week that they, along with the California Medical Association, would engage in additional talks to come up with one compromise proposal that would provide funding for schools, as well as raise revenues to address the state’s health care needs. The détente between the two sides is a sign that a new measure may be filed soon that would seek to essentially extend Proposition 30 before the income taxes for high wage earners roll back in 2018. Gov. Jerry Brown has held fast to his earlier comments that he would not actively support a Proposition 30 increase. He sold the measure to voters in 2012 as a temporary patch to address the state’s budget problems, and has been reluctant to back any extension. Brown, meanwhile, is getting ready to release his January budget, and a speech earlier this month indicates that criminal justice reform may be high on his agenda. Speaking at a forum for federal judges, Brown said California's crime laws were due for a dramatic overhaul. The governor argued that sentencing laws have gone too far, and that inmate behavior should play a greater role in determining the length of a prison stay. “Now the whole system is arbitrary," Brown said, according to the Los Angeles Times. "Instead of disadvantaging a small minority, we now cover the whole system...In this process we have 5,000 criminal provisions and there are 400 enhancements." He offered no concrete solution, but suggested parole boards should be given "greater latitude" in deciding "When is it time to go home?" the Times reported. Criminal justice reform may yet be the lasting legacy of the governor’s final two terms. In 2011, he passed a law that moved thousands of lower-level offenders to local jails instead of state prison. And, just last year, California voters passed Proposition 47, which reduces a handful of felony offenses to misdemeanors and allows people convicted of those crimes a chance to expunge their records. The January budget and State of the State address may offer additional clues about how criminal justice reform will shape the governor’s 2016 agenda. November 9, 2015 General CMA Capitol Insight, Anthony York 0 0 Comment Read More »
CMA Capitol Insight: Oct. 13, 2015 CMA Capitol Insight is a biweekly column by veteran journalist Anthony York, reporting on the inner workings of the state Legislature. _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Another one bites the dust The dust is just settling on hundreds of bills that were signed or vetoed by Governor Jerry Brown in the final flurry of activity for the 2015 legislative year. The session ended with some classic Jerry Brown signing messages and vetoes, and a strong implicit message for lawmakers in the year ahead. The governor’s most personal and talked about signing message accompanied his signature on a proposal that will give the terminally ill the right to end their own lives. The bill was passed as part of the special session on health care, and Brown’s office gave lawmakers an early indication that he didn’t think the special session was an appropriate venue for the emotionally charged issue. But in the end, the governor took the bill on its face and delivered one of the most thoughtful signing messages you will ever find from an elected official. “In the end, I was left to reflect on what I would want in the face of my own death,” Brown wrote in a signing message. “I do not know what I would do if I were dying in prolonged and excruciating pain. I am certain, however, that it would be a comfort to be able to consider the options afforded by this bill. And I wouldn’t deny that right to others.” The special session yielded little else, with lawmakers failing to agree on a plan to raise the managed care organization (MCO) tax and increase Medi-Cal reimbursement rates. But proponents of a new tobacco tax measure, including the California Medical Association, announced their plan to move ahead with a ballot measure for November 2016 that would hike cigarette taxes by $2 per pack to raise money for Medi-Cal. The initiative drive got a boost from billionaire Tom Steyer, who has lent his support to the effort. Back in the Capitol, Brown also made news for the bills he refused to sign. Among them were a series of tax-credit proposals, many of which were aimed at helping the poor. Brown cited long-term concerns about the state’s fiscal health as his reason for rejecting the proposals. His office even grouped the vetoes together in a press release, hailing the governor’s action as vetoes that were necessary to “help maintain California’s fiscal stability.” “Despite strong revenue performance over the past few years, the state’s budget has remained precariously balanced due to unexpected costs and the provision of new services,” Governor Brown said in his veto message. “Given these financial uncertainties, I cannot support providing additional tax credits that will make balancing the state’s budget even more difficult.” The governor also vetoed a series of bills that would have expanded Medi-Cal services, or other health care benefits, and specifically cited the failure to extend the MCO tax as a reason why. “Until the fiscal outlook for Medi-Cal is stabilized, I cannot support any of these measures,” Brown wrote. Taken together, the message to the legislature is clear: Pass the tax increases that the governor called for, particularly in the health care world, before seeking to expand services. But Brown also seemed to open the door to expanding health care services if and when that extension happens. However, Brown also raised flags about greater budget instability. The state stands to lose billions if Proposition 30 taxes are not extended by the end of 2018, and a coalition of labor groups is trying to get voters to extend those taxes next year. The vetoes are a sign that Brown is unlikely to budge from his position as the self-proclaimed protector of the state budget, and will continue to hold the line of state spending until more can be done to shore up the state’s revenues. October 14, 2015 General CMA Capitol Insight, Anthony York 0 0 Comment Read More »
